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THE WAR SITUATION.
January 20th. 1940.
BBC Broadcast
London
Everyone wonders what is happening about
the war. For several months past the Nazis have been uttering
ferocious threats of what they are going to do to the Western
Democracies-to the British and French Empires-when once they
set about them. But so far it is the small neutral States that
are bearing the brunt of German malice and cruelty. Neutral
ships are sunk without law or mercy-not only by the blind and
wanton mine, but by the coldly considered, deliberately aimed,
torpedo. The Dutch, the Belgians, the Danes, the Swedes, and,
above all, the Norwegians, have their ships destroyed whenever
they can be caught upon the high seas. It is only in the
British and French convoys that safety is to be found. There,
in those convoys, it is five-hundred-to-one against being sunk.
There, controlling forces are at work which are steadily
keeping the seas open, steadily keeping the traffic going, and
establishing order and freedom of movement amid the waves of
anarchy and sea-murder.
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- We, the aggrieved and belligerent Powers
who are waging war against Germany, have no need to ask for
respite. Every week our commerce grows; every month our
organisation is improved and reinforced. We feel ourselves more
confident day by day of our ability to police the seas and
oceans and to keep open and active the salt-water highways by
which we have; and along which we shall draw the means of
victory. It seems pretty certain that half the U-boats with
which Germany began the war have been sunk, and that their new
building has fallen far behind what we expected. Our faithful
Asdic detector smells them out in the depths of the sea and,
with the potent aid of the Royal Air Force, I do not doubt that
we shall break their strength and break their purpose.
The magnetic mine, and all the other mines with which the
narrow waters, the approaches to this Island, are strewn, do
not present us with any problem which we deem insoluble. It
must be remembered that in the last war we suffered very
grievous losses from mines, and that at the climax more than
six hundred British vessels were engaged solely upon the task
of mine-sweeping. We must remember that. We must always be
expecting some bad thing from Germany, but I will venture to
say that it is with growing confidence that we await the
further developments or variants of their attack.
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- Here we are, after nearly five months of
all they can do against us on the sea, with the first U-boat
campaign for the first time being utterly broken, with the
mining menace in good control, with our shipping virtually
undiminished, and with all the oceans of the world free from
surface raiders. It is true that the Deutschland escaped the
clutches of our cruisers by the skin of her teeth, but the Spee
still sticks up in the harbour of Montevideo as a grisly
monument and as a measure of the fate in store for any Nazi
warship which dabbles in piracy on the broad waters. As you
know, I have always-after some long and hard experience-spoken
with the utmost restraint and caution about the war at sea, and
I am quite sure that there are many losses and misfortunes
which lie ahead of us there; but in all humility and
self-questioning I feel able to declare that at the Admiralty,
as, I have no doubt, at the French Ministry of Marine, things
are not going so badly after all. Indeed, they have never gone
so well in any naval war. We look forward as the months go by
to establishing such a degree of safe sailings as will enable
the commerce of all the nations whose ships accept our
guidance, not only to live but to thrive. This part-this sea
affair-at least, of the Nazi attack upon freedom is not going
to bar the path of justice or of retribution.
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- Very different is the lot of the
unfortunate neutrals. Whether on sea or on land, they are the
victims upon whom Hitler's hate and spite descend. Look at the
group of small but ancient and historic States which lie in the
North; or look again at that other group of anxious peoples in
the Balkans or in the Danube basin behind whom stands the
resolute Turk. Every one of them is wondering which will be the
next victim on whom the criminal adventurers of Berlin will
cast their rending stroke. A German major makes a forced
landing in Belgium with plans for the invasion of that country
whose neutrality Germany has so recently promised to respect.
In Rumania there is deep fear lest by some deal between Moscow
and Berlin they may become the next object of aggression.
German intrigues are seeking to undermine the newly
strengthened solidarity of the southern Slavs. The hardy Swiss
arm and man their mountain passes. The Dutch-whose services to
European freedom will be remembered long after the smear of
Hitler has been wiped from the human path-stand along their
dykes, as they did against the tyrants of bygone days. All
Scandinavia dwells brooding under Nazi and Bolshevik
threats.
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Only Finland-superb, nay, sublime-in the
jaws of peril-Finland shows what free men can do. The service
rendered by Finland to mankind is magnificent. They have
exposed, for all the world to see, the military incapacity of
the Red Army and of the Red Air Force. Many illusions about
Soviet Russia have been dispelled in these few fierce weeks of
fighting in the Arctic Circle. Everyone can see how Communism
rots the soul of a nation; how it makes it abject and hungry in
peace, and proves it base and abominable in war. We cannot tell
what the fate of Finland may be, but no more mournful spectacle
could be presented to what is left to civilised mankind than
that this splendid Northern race should be at last worn down
and reduced to servitude worse than death by the dull brutish
force of overwhelming numbers. If the light of freedom which
still burns so brightly in the frozen North should be finally
quenched, it might well herald a return to the Dark Ages, when
every vestige of human progress during two thousand years would
be engulfed.
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- But what would happen if all these
neutral nations I have mentioned - and some others I have not
mentioned-were with one spontaneous impulse to do their duty in
accordance with the Covenant of the League, and were to stand
together with the British and French Empires against aggression
and wrong? At present their plight is lamentable; and it will
become much worse. They bow humbly and in fear to German
threats of violence, comforting themselves meanwhile with the
thought that the Allies will win, that Britain and France will
strictly observe all the laws and conventions, and that
breaches of these laws are only to be expected from the German
side. Each one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the
crocodile will eat him last. All of them hope that the storm
will pass before their turn comes to be devoured. But I fear-I
fear greatly-the storm will not pass. It will rage and it will
roar, ever more loudly, ever more widely. It will spread to the
South; it will spread to the North. There is no chance of a
speedy end except through united action; and if at any time
Britain and France, wearying of the struggle, were to make a
shameful peace, nothing would remain for the smaller States of
Europe, with their shipping and their possessions, but to be
divided between the opposite, though similar, barbarisms of
Nazidom and Bolshevism.
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- The one thing that will be most helpful
in determining the action of neutrals is their increasing sense
of the power and resolution of the Western Allies. These small
States are alarmed by the fact that the German armies are more
numerous, and that their Air Force is still more numerous, and
also that both are nearer to them than the forces of Great
Britain and France. Certainly it is true that we are facing
numerical odds; but that is no new thing in our history. Very
few wars have been won by mere numbers alone. Quality, will
power, geographical advantages, natural and financial
resources, the command of the sea, and, above all, a cause
which rouses the spontaneous surgings of the human spirit in
millions of hearts-these have proved to be the decisive factors
in the human story. If it were otherwise, how would the race of
men have risen above the apes; how otherwise would they have
conquered and extirpated dragons and monsters; how would they
have ever evolved the moral theme; how would they have marched
forward across the centuries to broad conceptions of
compassion, of freedom, and of right? How would they ever have
discerned those beacon lights which summon and guide us across
the rough dark waters, and presently will guide us across the
flaming lines of battle towards better days which lie
beyond?
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Numbers do not daunt us. But judged even
by the test of numbers we have no reason to doubt that once the
latent, and now rapidly growing, power of the British nation
and Empire are brought, as they must be, and as they will be,
fully into line with the magnificent efforts of the French
Republic, then, even in mass and in weight, we shall not be
found wanting. When we look behind the brazen fronts of Nazidom
- as we have various means of doing-we see many remarkable
signs of psychological and physical disintegration. We see the
shortages of raw materials which already begin to hamper both
the quality and the volume of their war industry. We feel the
hesitancy of divided counsels, and the pursuing doubts which
assail and undermine those who count on force and force
alone.
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In the bitter and increasingly exacting
conflict which lies before us we are resolved to keep nothing
back, and not to be outstripped by any in service to the common
cause. Let the great cities of Warsaw, of Prague, of Vienna
banish despair even in the midst of their agony. Their
liberation is sure. The day will come when the joybells will
ring again throughout Europe, and when victorious nations,
masters not only of their foes but of themselves, will plan and
build in justice, in tradition, and in freedom a house of many
mansions where there will be room for all.
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